Foreclosures: It May Be Worse Than We Think

Banks are moving slowly to list repossessed homes for sale, which could mean that housing inventory is even more bloated than current statistics indicate. The volume of this so-called ‘ghost inventory’ could be substantial enough to depress already steeply falling prices when it does go on the market.

“Many properties that should be listed on the MLS are not listed on the MLS,” according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

NAR calculates official housing inventory statistics using data from the multiple listing services. By that measure, there were 4.2 million existing homes for sale in November, an 11.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 10.3-month supply in October.

But now it seems quite possible that these figures, which are already at record highs, are underestimating the situation. And if that’s the case, it could take much longer for the housing market recovery than analysts currently expect.

There are also batches of bank-owned homes that don’t appear on the multiple listing services because lenders are trying to sell them via bulk and auction sales to investors as well as individuals.

The phenomenon of a growing ghost inventory doesn’t promise to get better anytime soon, as long as the rate of foreclosures continues to ravage the market. There were more than 3.1 million foreclosure filings in 2008, according to RealtyTrac, the online marketer of foreclosed properties, which says it has over 1.5 million bank-owned properties on its site.